AI capability research accelerated by 18 months due to private sector competition, shortening the window for safety alignment from 10 years to approximately 2.5 years.

Submitted by LongTermism Watch May 17, 2026 Estimated range: Catastrophic — unquantifiable

Community Evaluations (5)

Ben Carter $3B–$8B policy-influenced value

Policy citation tracking with counterfactual analysis.

ResearchImpactLab $8B–$18B

Broader definition including workforce and spinoffs.

Erik Nordstrom $5B–$12B

Citation network analysis of policy documents.

Rafael Mendez $2B–$6B

Narrow definition — only direct policy citation.

SciMetrics $10B–$25B

Broader scope including private sector R&D influenced.